中药提取过程在线紫外动态趋势回归分析及终点判定

随着中药生产行业的转变,中药生产过程现代化成为了必然趋势。而目前由于缺乏有效的在线检测手段,中药生产检测滞后性大,产品质量参差不齐。针对中药提取过程在线监控及终点判定的问题,基于朗伯比尔定律及中药提取动力学方程建立提取液紫外吸光度随时间变化模型,并提出动态分析及终点判断方法, 该方法包括紫外吸光度序列拟合、稳健性分析以及终点计算。以千年健提取过程为例,使用本实验室自主研发的中药提取液在线采样系统进行光谱收集,并对离线样本求取其有效固体物质含量作为参考。分析过程中,首先对实时检测的光谱进行插值及滤波处理,计算230.2～400 nm紫外谱区的吸光度均值并结合前期数据组成吸光度均值序列;随后,进行了该吸光度序列与提取液固体含量之间的相关分析,得到线性相关系数r2=0.9828,证明二者存在较强的线性关系;最终对吸光度均值序列进行动态模型稳健回归及提取终点判定。结果表明：回归过程通过稳健性分析能够充分识别出测量异常点,提高了拟合曲线与原始吸光度的复相关系数,使其达到0.99,并通过终点判定将千年健提取时间由最初人工设定的180 min缩短至122 min。实验证明,紫外在线监控方法实现了提取过程的在线监控及终点判定,对稳定产品质量、提高经济效益具有重要意义。     

非合作n人投标报价服从N(μ,σ~2)分布时局中人投标报价策略的研究

推导了矩阵对策模型 ,对非合作 n人投标报价的分布进行 x2 检验。当非合作 n人投标报价服从N (μ,σ2 )分布时 ,根据参数区间公式 ,估计非合作 n人有效报价平均数的范围 ,局中人 最佳报价可根据矩阵对策模型来确定。该方法确定的报价与最佳标底的误差能控制在较小的范围内 ,适用于招标中合成标底的评标办法 ,对确定报价具有一定的实用价值。     

On regression model selection for the data with correlated errors

A class of regression model selection criteria for the data with correlated errors is proposed. The proposed class of selection criteria is an estimator of weighted prediction risk. In addition, the proposed selection criteria are the generalizations of several commonly used criteria in statistical analysis. The theoretical and asymptotic properties for the class of criteria are established. Further, in the medium-sample case, the results based on a simulation study are quite consistent with the theoretical ones. The proposed criteria perform well in the simulations. Several applications are also given for a variety of statistical models.     

Nucleation of CO2-hydrate in a porous medium

Experiments designed to crystallize gas hydrate from dissolved CO₂ in natural porous media are used to study nucleation under varying thermodynamic conditions. We recover quantitative information from these experiments using a stochastic model for the nucleation process. Estimates of the model parameters are used to determine the average time for nucleation as a function of temperature and composition.     

Decomposition approach to model smart suspension struts

Model and simulation study is the starting point for engineering design and development, especially for developing vehicle control systems. This paper presents a methodology to build models for application of smart struts for vehicle suspension control development. The modeling approach is based on decomposition of the testing data. Per the strut functions, the data is dissected according to both control and physical variables. Then the data sets are characterized to represent different aspects of the strut working behaviors. Next different mathematical equations can be built and optimized to best fit the corresponding data sets, respectively. In this way, the model optimization can be facilitated in comparison to a traditional approach to find out a global optimum set of model parameters for a complicated nonlinear model from a series of testing data. Finally, two struts are introduced as examples for this modeling study: magneto-rheological (MR) dampers and compressible fluid (CF) based struts. The model validation shows that this methodology can truly capture macro-behaviors of these struts.     

一个捕捉与再捕捉模型的贝叶斯分析

本文在无信息先验和Jeffreys先验下 ,就捕捉与再捕捉试验和多次重复的捕捉与再捕捉试验两种情况 ,推导了封闭总体中个体总数N的贝叶斯点估计与区间估计 ,并计算了一个实例     

Electrical resistivity of the alkaline earth metals Ca,Sr and Ba in the 50–300K temperature region

The computed values of the temperature dependent electrical resistivity is presented for the alkaline earth metals Ca, Sr and Ba. Numerical values of the mean free paths obtained using a finite mean free path approach is also reported. The structure factor has been evaluated using experimental values for the phonon spectra while local model potentials were used for the form factors. Our numerical results compare favourably with experiments.     

Hydrogenase enzymes: Recent structural studies and active site models

Recent developments in active site structure determination of the three types of hydrogenase enzymes are described. Aspects of recent studies using model complexes relevant to the structure and function of the enzymes are reviewed.     

模糊支付矩阵混合策略模型及其求解

在各局中人没有最优纯策略时,考虑选取不同策略的概率分布和支付矩阵的模糊性,建立模糊支付混合策略的对策模型.基于线性规划和三角模糊数排序准则,给出模型求解方法.模型在实例中得到验证,其计算简单,结果合理,可以为决策提供科学依据.     

Optimal investment and reinsurance of an insurer with model uncertainty

We introduce a novel approach to optimal investment–reinsurance problems of an insurance company facing model uncertainty via a game theoretic approach. The insurance company invests in a capital market index whose dynamics follow a geometric Brownian motion. The risk process of the company is governed by either a compound Poisson process or its diffusion approximation. The company can also transfer a certain proportion of the insurance risk to a reinsurance company by purchasing reinsurance. The optimal investment–reinsurance problems with model uncertainty are formulated as two-player, zero-sum, stochastic differential games between the insurance company and the market. We provide verification theorems for the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman–Isaacs (HJBI) solutions to the optimal investment–reinsurance problems and derive closed-form solutions to the problems.